U.S. Treasury secretary is very proficient in the logic of monetary valuation. He knows that China's inflation rate should be included in the real appreciation of the RMB; he knew that China's inflation has caused serious damage on productivity. February 17, 2011, Geithner in the U.S. Senate Finance Committee hearing, he had given the shock increase of the RMB exchange rate: if included in inflation this year, the real appreciation of the RMB against the U.S. dollar rate will reach 10%, or even higher. Geithner said that with the growing inflationary pressures in China, many enterprises will be re-considered investments in China, this will enhance the competitiveness of the United States. Inadvertently, Geithner reveal two important messages: first, China's actual inflation is much higher than official statistics in China (CPI may be close to 10); Second, China's inflation has damaged China's productivity level (ROA may be close to 0). Young Geithner spilled the beans.
Obviously, as a financial expert ,Mr Geithner,has more understanding of money than for his Chinese counterparts. He knows the logic of monetary valuation. He does not particularly care about the nominal exchange rate volatility. The real master, able to grasp the nature of the problem. The essence is, do not need to play with China, "Plaza Agreement", with output up to the year as inflation, appreciation of the yen forced to the same effect. Also, cheaper cost of such practices. At this point, Geithner has revealed the U.S. implementation of the quantitative easing policy of strategic objectives. What a smart move(smart power)!
Yuan does not appreciate, imported inflation will we landed in a recession; RMB appreciation, the severe employment problems will we landed in political turmoil. We can only listen to Geithner's recommendations: the slow appreciation. We are like the frog jumped into the warm water, innocently waiting for the water boiling.
So either way, the world’s economy is doomed. Especially in Europe, I think the Germans will be forced to inflate themselves next yr. However, there is another way the world can play the game; I will try to write it later.